How are Coffee Consumers Dealing with 2025? | Extra Shot Ep. 12

Episode Summary

The obvious and fair question is, have the first six months of 2025 seen any unusual shifts in coffee consumer attitudes and behaviors? The answer, as one might expect, is yes and no.

Episode Notes

• Coffee consumption has remained steady despite rising prices.
• Many consumers are changing their purchasing behaviors in response to costs.
• 52% of respondents will not change their coffee format even if prices rise.
• Older coffee drinkers are feeling the financial pinch more than younger ones.
• The balance of coffee consumed at home versus out of home remains constant.
• A significant percentage of consumers are switching to less expensive coffee formats.
• Financial well-being impacts coffee purchasing decisions.
• The trend of portion control is influencing coffee format choices.
• Consumer habits are evolving in response to economic conditions.

While the National Coffee Association (NCA) has been conducting annual U.S. coffee consumer research since the early 1950’s, in recent years they’ve been conducting drinking trends surveys every six months. Research for the Spring Report is conducted each January and research for the Fall Report is conducted each June. In most years, variance between the January and June data is minor apart from largely anticipated and important to track seasonal shifts, such as an increase in consumption across cold coffee categories during warmer months. 

The obvious and fair question is, have the first six months of 2025 seen any unusual shifts in coffee consumer attitudes and behaviors? The answer, as one might expect, is yes and no.

First, the good news is that we have not seen a decline in the number of people drinking coffee daily or recently. In January, 66% of respondents reported drinking coffee yesterday, and in June that number remained at 66%. Likewise, the number of people who say they had coffee over the past week remained at 73%. The conventional wisdom, that coffee drinkers don’t stop drinking coffee or even necessarily drink less coffee when prices go up, but might change how they buy and drink coffee, appears to be holding true for now. The survey does indicate we might be already seeing shifts in the second half of our inelasticity bromide.

It’s true, “did or didn’t” consumption is holding steady, but the NCA reports “more than half of Americans reported changing their coffee purchasing behavior in response to rising coffee prices.” To be precise, 59% of respondents indicate they’ve adopted new behaviors, such as only buying coffee that is on sale (15%) and stocking up when they do (20%), reducing the amount of prepared coffee purchased at retail locations (15%), and switching to less expensive brands (15%). Note, this data specifically was gathered in response to a question that is new to the Fall 2025 report. In June, the NCA asked people for the first time how they are responding to higher prices, a question they have not asked previously.

This was not an open-ended question on the survey so respondents were choosing from a list of cost-saving behaviors provided to them. It appears that “brew less than a full pot of coffee” was not one of the options, or at least not one option enough people chose to make it relevant. Also, I think it’s interesting to note that on average, respondents indicated they’ve made two changes over the first six months of 2025 that they perceive as saving them money. 

In any case, six out of 10 people report changing one or more of their coffee buying habits in response to higher prices. This is not insignificant. And 36% of coffee drinkers report changing what the NCA calls the “format” of their coffee in response to another question that is new to the Fall 2025 report. 

For example, some people who “typically” buy whole bean coffee have switched to buying ground coffee (37%). What we can infer here is not that people are switching from whole bean brand XYZ to XYZ brand ground. Clearly, people are switching from a coffee they usually buy whole bean to a less expensive coffee that they purchase ground. 

Similarly, some coffee drinkers report switching from ground coffee to single serve pods in response to higher prices (32%). Again, not insignificant. 

Wait, we might be tempted to squawk, single-serve pods are more expensive not less. Yes, per ounce this is true, but remember people are not brewing pots-worth of pods. Most coffee consumers are drinking 2-3 cups a day so they switch to single-serve pods to spend less through portion control and avoid wasting coffee. 

Of course retail prices vary significantly, but broadly speaking and in average terms it might cost well over $4.00 to brew a pot of good coffee, while three cups of single-serve acceptable coffee could cost less than $2.00. We all draw our lines on quality in different places but we should admit that for most people spending less can make some coffee taste better.  

Over half of respondents (52%) indicate they will not change their coffee “format” even if prices continue to rise. Of course that means 46% indicate they will consider switching if prices continue to rise. The format consumers indicate they are most likely to switch away from is ground coffee (55%). Usually, they indicate they would move toward something with pre-defined portions. As discussed, I’m guessing their thought here is portion control and less waste. Yes, I know, we would like to talk to each one of them about switching to a single cup pour-over cone instead, or a single serve French Press, but we would be fighting an uphill battle against convenience, and history tells us this is  a war we will lose. 

If you’re thinking I switched from “battle” to “war” in the last sentence on purpose, you are correct. In the contest between quality and convenience many battles are won by quality…among select consumer groups. And is this not part of the intent behind specialty coffee, that it’s not for everyone? But when cost and convenience collide we must admit that the population of “select consumers” declines. True believers might stubbornly commit to drinking only the best while drinking less coffee to curb costs and more power to them but they’re not helping our bottom line.   

A small drop in cups per day per coffee drinker, from 3.0 in January to 2.8 in June, represents a normal and incremental fluctuation pattern. I only mention it here to emphasize, again, that while we are beginning to see some shifts in how coffee is consumed, overall coffee consumption is holding steady so far.

The balance between coffee consumed at home (79%) and coffee consumed outside the home (28%) remained constant over the first six months of 2025, but one of the out-of-home locations tracked by the survey saw a decrease. In January 2025, 5% of daily coffee drinkers indicated they had at least one cup of coffee at a Quick Serve Restaurant. In June that dropped significantly to 2%, the lowest percentage in five years and an indication that people are eating out less. This conclusion is supported by other studies. The research company Circana has reported that between January and March 2025, American consumers ate 1 billion fewer meals at restaurants compared to the first quarter of 2024.  

Finally, perhaps the most important statistic in the new report isn’t even related directly to coffee. For the last five years the survey has included a question about financial well-being; basically, are you better off, worse off, or the same financially compared to six months ago. In June of this year 31% of respondents indicated they were worse off financially than they were six months before, a significant increase over the 24% who said this in January and the highest percentage since the NCA started asking the question. It’s even higher than the pandemic peak of 28%. 

Interestingly, 35% of respondents over age 40 feel their financial situation has worsened compared to 24-26% of those under age 40. I think it’s fair to point out that our expectations of what financial security looks like expand as we grow older; but it’s also worth noting that coffee drinkers over 40 are traditionally more “spendy” when it comes to coffee and that tendency might wane as prices remain high. Which is not to say, as mentioned more than once, that they’ll drink less coffee. They might just grab their coffee off a lower shelf. 

This blog is based on information from the National Coffee Association (NCA) National Coffee Data Trends Fall 2025 Report. I provided here a handful of statistics, but it should be noted, I barely scratch the surface of what is available within the report. The full report provides over 100 pages of comprehensive and detailed data on a vast variety of issues important to coffee professionals. I encourage anyone with the means to purchase the full report from the NCA.